- Consensus estimate +170K
- Estimate range +60K to +250K
- December was +256K
- Private consensus +141K versus +223K prior
- Unemployment rate consensus estimate 4.1% versus 4.1% prior
- Prior unrounded unemployment rate 4.0855%
- Prior participation rate 62.5%
- Prior underemployment U6 7.5%
- Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +3.8% versus +3.9% prior
- Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% versus +0.3% prior
- Avg weekly hours exp 34.3 versus 34.3 prior
As the U.S. labor market braces for the release of January’s non-farm payrolls report, historical trends suggest a mixed outcome. While January data has traditionally shown an even split between exceeding and missing expectations, unemployment rate estimates have tended to surprise on the lower side 58% of the time. However, with other key indicators—excluding jobless claims and Challenger reports—suggesting a strong result, the possibility of an unexpected miss remains.
One external factor that could influence the report is the impact of January’s wildfires in California, which may have temporarily affected employment figures.
Beyond the headline job numbers, economists are closely watching potential downward revisions to 2024 employment data. Projections suggest a cumulative downward adjustment of 650,000 to 700,000 jobs, a less severe revision than the 818,000 decline flagged in August but still a significant drag, averaging a reduction of about 50,000 jobs per month in the first half of the year. Additionally, shifts in population data could contribute to an uptick in the unemployment rate.
With strong signals but looming revisions, the upcoming report is expected to offer critical insights into the strength and sustainability of the U.S. labor market.