🧭 Macro & Sentiment Shift
Bitcoin saw a strong upside move on Friday after remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted at a more dovish policy stance. This boosted market confidence, with traders now pricing in an 84% chance of a September rate cut, alongside expectations of roughly 54 basis points of total easing by the end of the year.
However, the bullish momentum didn’t last long. Over the weekend and into the following sessions, Bitcoin began to lose ground. The decline lacked a clear fundamental trigger, suggesting that the recent selloff may have been technically driven. Now, market focus is turning sharply toward next week’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, a key event likely to have a major impact on interest rate expectations and broader market sentiment.
📊 Potential Scenarios Ahead
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Stronger-than-expected NFP data could reduce the likelihood of a September rate cut to near 50%, while also prompting a more hawkish repricing in the rate outlook. This scenario might apply downward pressure on Bitcoin in the short term.
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Weaker data, on the other hand, could fuel more dovish bets, increasing expectations of three total rate cuts by year-end—a setup that would likely support Bitcoin and risk assets.
📉 Technical Picture
On the daily chart, Bitcoin is currently trading below a critical support zone near the 111,900 level.
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Bearish outlook: Sellers are expected to defend this area, using it as a reference point to position for a potential move down toward the 100,000 region, with stops likely placed just above 111,900.
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Bullish outlook: Buyers will be looking for a decisive move back above 111,900 to regain momentum, opening the door for a possible rally toward the 123,000 resistance level.
📅 Key Events to Watch
Before the NFP release, traders will also keep a close eye on:
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U.S. Initial Jobless Claims – due tomorrow
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U.S. PCE Price Index – wrapping up the week on Friday
These data points, combined with the upcoming NFP print, will likely dictate short-term price action and risk appetite across the crypto and broader financial markets.