The Federal Reserve on Wednesday lowered interest rates for the second time this year in a continued bid to prevent unemployment from surging. But another rate cut at the next meeting in December “is not a forgone conclusion,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a news conference, adding there were “strongly differing views” among policymakers on how to move forward. Fed officials voted for another quarter-point rate cut, lowering their benchmark lending rate to a range between 3.75% and 4%, the lowest in three years. Wednesday’s decision drew two dissents; one from Fed Governor Stephen Miran, who backed a larger, half-point cut; and another from Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, who preferred to hold borrowing costs steady.
Powell made it clear that the Fed doesn’t have the full picture of the economy’s health without government data. The Fed’s latest policy statement noted that “more recent indicators” were “consistent” with earlier data, before the shutdown, that showed weak hiring and slightly higher unemployment. Powell said as much when taking reporters’ questions.
“There’s just no story over the last four weeks, it’s kind of stable,” he said. “You don’t see anything that says that the job market, or really any part of the economy, is making a significant deterioration.”
Data from payroll software provider ADP released this week showed that hiring picked up in September, but remained weak. And while there have been prominent layoff announcements in recent weeks, that doesn’t immediately translate to higher unemployment. Workers who’ve been laid off sometimes receive generous severance packages. Powell mentioned that private data cannot replace government figures, which are widely known as the “gold standard” of measuring the world’s largest economy. And the persistent absence of those figures could put future rate cuts at risk. “There’s a possibility that it would make sense to be more cautious,” Powell said.

